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  A picture of Sarah Layne flashed up. The men all stirred uncomfortably as they stared at the image: handsome, but haughty and undeniably challenging.

  HOUR 11 LOS ANGELES 6 AM PDT 2:

  Wright left the hospital against doctors advice and plunged into the political organization he formed: Americans for a Better Nation. For the next four years he gave speeches and wrote pamphlets. In 1968 he worked hard to influence the national elections on every level - mostly without success. He fell into a depression after that.

  `Recently, his interest in politics dropped sharply. He seems to have withdrawn from any kind of public life; he no longer holds large parties and no longer participates in the social life of New York. According to all information, he has been intensely studying a variety of subjects that are rather ominous. These include sociology, radiation theory, physics, and some aspects of biology. He has interviewed experts in several different areas - Graves flipped the pages of his file `- including cancer experts, civil engineers, horticulture specialists, and aerosol spray-can designers. He -

  `Aerosol spray-can designers? someone asked.

  `That is correct.

  There was some head scratching among those present.

  `He also became interested in the meteorology of the Southwest.

  The men were listening now and looking very puzzled. All the doodling had stopped.

  Wright was listed as a Potential Surveillance Subject at the end of 1968, after he had engaged in some questionable activities to influence the national election. As a PSS he did nothing out of the ordinary until six months ago. Then two things happened.

  `First, Wright began to transfer large amounts of money from various accounts in this country and in Switzerland. As you know, we keep an eye on private capital transfers in excess of $300,000. Wright was moving much more than that. Secondly, he began to be seen with known underworld figures. The pattern of behaviour suggested a courtship, and we became very concerned at that point.

  The slides changed again several times in rapid succession, showing smooth-faced businessmen. `Robert ". `Trigger" Cannino. Sal Martucci. Benny Flick. Gerald "Tiny" Margolin. These are some of the men he saw during that period.

  The slides now showed Wright in restaurants, at taxi stands, and in Central Park with these men.

  `Active surveillance began in June 1972, when Wright left New York for San Diego. He was clearly making plans for the Republican Convention, but their nature was not clear, and he was giving himself much too much time. I ran the surveillance from the start. During the surveillance period his contacts with organized crime have substantially decreased. He has been seeing only one person consistently - this man.

  The screen showed a bald, glowering face.

  Eddie "The Key" Trasker, fifty-three, a resident of Las Vegas who lives mostly in San Diego. He is reputed to be the power behind the Teamsters, and his influence over all forms of interstate transportation is enormous. Wright has seen him nearly every week, often during the early hours of the morning.

  `He has also come in contact with this man, Timothy Drew, an ex-Army officer with a background in computers. The meaning of that association was unclear to me until this morning. Drew clearly represents Sigma Station; Drew tapped out classified Defence information for Wright. We do not know what kind of information, or why it was stolen.

  Graves sat down and looked at the faces. Phelps said, `Questions, gentlemen?

  McPherson, from the Presidents staff, cleared his throat. `I gather from Mr Graves excellent but rather psychologically oriented presentation that we have no damned idea what Wright is up to. Is that substantially correct?

  `Yes, it is, Graves said.

  `Well then, McPherson said, `Im afraid we can do nothing. Wright has acted suspiciously and is quite probably deranged. Neither is a crime in this country.

  `I disagree, Corey said, sitting back in his chair. Corey was Defence liaison; a heavyset man with thick eyebrows that joined over his nose. `I think we have plenty of reason to apprehend Wright at this time.

  `Plenty of reason, McPherson said, `but no evidence, no charges. . .

  Whitlock, from the justice Department, straightened his tie and said, `Im sure we all agree this is an unpleasant sort of meeting. Mr Wright is a private citizen and he is entitled to do as he pleases so long as he does not commit a crime. Ive seen and heard nothing that suggests a crime has been or will be committed, and

  `What about the underworld contacts? Corey said.

  Whitlock smiled. `What about them?

  `I think thats very suggestive -

  `But he has broken no law, Whitlock said. `And until he. does. . . He shrugged.

  Corey frowned, pushing his eyebrows into a black, ominous V. `An interrogation would be useful, even without a criminal act, he said. `I think we have a basis for interrogation here - Wrights association with Timothy Drew, who has stolen classified information, probably for Wright. Cant we pick him up on that?

  `I feel we should, Phelps said, speaking for the first time.

  Graves spun around to look at Phelps.

  `I disagree, McPherson said.

  Whitlock made some notes on the pad in front of him. Finally he said, `Perhaps an interrogation is the safest route. I think we need to know what was tapped out by Sigma Station. Mr Corey?

  `Pick him up.

  `Mr Phelps?

  `Pick him up.

  `Mr McPherson?

  `Opposed.

  Whitlock spread his hands. Graves said nothing. The meeting was over.

  `If there are no further questions, Phelps said, `we can adjourn.

  `You didnt like that, did you? Phelps said, as they walked back through the travel agency.

  `No, Graves said. `I didnt.

  `Still, Phelps said, `I think its best. Arrest him today, on suspicion of conspiracy to commit grand larceny involving classified information.

  `Isnt it robbery?

  Phelps sighed patiently. `Robbery and larceny are different crimes.

  Graves said, `How long can I wait?

  `A few hours. Play with him if you want, but pick him up by evening. I want to get to the bottom of this.

  Graves couldnt make the arrest himself. Hed need federal marshals. `Youll notify the marshals in San Diego?

  `Theyre waiting for your call, Phelps said, and smiled. As much as he ever did.

  Graves had fifteen minutes before he had to return to the airport. As he walked out of the travel agency, he heard a room filled with mechanical chatter. Curious, he paused and opened the door. He found that one office had been converted into a temporary hardware room. It had once been somebodys office, but now there were six teletypes and computer consoles installed there. He was reminded that the State Department (Intelligence Division) and the NSA had more computers than any other organizations in the world.

  The room was empty at this hour. He glanced at the teletypes, noting their colour. When he first started working at State in the early sixties, rooms like this had contained five red teletypes and one blue teletype. The red machines recorded information from over-seas stations and embassies; the blue was for domestic data. Now, four of the machines were blue and only two were red.

  There had been a shift in orientation for State Intelligence. Nobody cared any longer about the movements of an eighth assistant deputy minister in the Yugoslav government. They were much more interested in the number five man in the Black Panther Party, or the number three man in the John Birch Society, or the number six man in Americans for a Better Nation.

  He sat down at a computer console, stared at the blank TV screen, and began typing in Wrights call numbers. The screen glowed and printed out the categories of stored information:

  WRIGHT, JOHN HENSEN

  001 FILE SUMMARY

  002 PERSONAL APPEARANCE, COMPLETE

  003 PHOTOS

  004 PERSONAL HISTORY, COMPLETE

  005 RECENT ACTIVITIES (2
WEEK UPDATE)

  006 FINANCIAL HISTORY, COMPLETE

  007 POLITICAL HISTORY, COMPLETE

  008 MISCELLANEOUS

  009 CROSS REFERENCES LISTING, COMPLETE

  Graves stared at the categories with some distaste. It was disturbing that the government should have so much information on a private individual - particularly one who had committed no criminal act at any time.

  Then on an impulse he pushed the `Wipe button and the screen went blank. He typed in `Graves, John Norman, followed by his own call-up number. He sat back and watched the numbers print out on the screen:

  GRAVES, JOHN NORMAN 445798054

  INTELLIGENCE, DEPT STATE/INVESTIGATIONS (DOM)

  TELEPHONE: 808-415-7800 X 4305

  FILE CONTENTS CANNOT BE DISPLAYED ON THIS

  CONSOLE WITHOUT AUTHORIZATION VQ

  He hesitated, then punched `Auth: VQ

  AUTHORIZATION VQ RECORDED

  STATE NAME

  After another hesitation, he punched `Phelps, Richard D.

  RECORD CALL-UP NAME AS PHELPS, RICHARD D. FILE CONTENTS CANNOT BE DISPLAYED ON THIS CONSOLE TO THE ABOVENAMED PERSON. CALL-UP PERSON IS ADVISED TO ACQUIRE NTK AUTHORIZATION FROM DEPARTMENT HEAD.

  Graves smiled. So even Phelps couldnt call up Graves file without a special need-to-know authorization. Who could call it up? Feeling whimsical, he typed out `This is the President of the United States.

  The screen glowed:

  RECORD CALL-UP AS PRESIDE NTOFTHEUNITEDSTATES IS THIS A CODE NAME

  STATE GIVEN NAME

  Graves sighed. Computers just didnt show any respect. He pressed the `Wipe button and returned to the question of Wright.

  He didnt really know what he was looking for. Graves had supplied most of the computerized file contents himself. But perhaps someone else had added to it. He pushed the 008 sequence calling up miscellaneous information. That category had been empty two weeks ago. Now it contained an academic history of Wrights work in mathematics, prepared by `S. Vessen, State/Anal/412. Whoever that was. He had a moment of pleasure at the thought that States analysis people were abbreviated `anal. It was fitting.

  He turned to the information itself:

  HX ACADEMIC - JOHN WRIGHT IBIBLIO FOLLOWS:

  008/02)

  WRIGHT STUDIED MATHEMATICS AT PRINCETON

  UNDER REIMANN. FROM THE START HIS INTEREST,

  LIKE THAT OF HIS TEACHER, WAS HEAVILY

  STATISTICAL AND PROBABILISTIC. HIS FIRST PAPER

  CONCERNED STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS. THIS

  WAS WRITTEN IN 1942, BEFORE HIGH SPEED DIGITAL

  COMPUTERS WERE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, WITHOUT

  SUCH TOOLS WRIGHT DECIDED THAT THE STOCK

  MARKET WAS TOTALLY RANDOM IN ITS BEHAVIOUR.

  (THAT IS, THE CHANCE THAT A GIVEN STOCK WOULD

  GO UP OR DOWN ON ANY DAY BORE NO

  RELATIONSHIP TO WHAT IT HAD DONE THE PREVIOUS

  DAY. ) THIS FACT WAS FINALLY CONFIRMED BEYOND

  ALL DOUBT IN 1961

  WRIGHT WAS ALSO INTERESTED IN SPORTS AND GAMBLING. IN 1944 HE WROTE AN AMUSING SHORT ARTICLE ON BEING DUE. IN IT HE ARGUED CORRECTLY THAT THE ORDINARY NOTION THAT A MAN IS DUE FOR A HIT IF HE HAS BEEN RECENTLY UNSUCCESSFUL AT BAT IS TOTALLY FALLACIOUS. EACH TIME AT BAT IS A SEPARATE EVENT.

  HE WAS ALSO INTERESTED IN HISTORICAL CONTEXTS: THE FACT THAT JOHN ADAMS, JAMES MONROE, AND THOMAS JEFFERSON ALL DIED ON JULY 4th, AND SO ON. HE WROTE A PAPER ON ASSIGNING CAUSATION TO HISTORICAL AND POLITICAL EVENTS. IN THIS WORK HE WAS STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THEORETICAL PHYSICISTS.

  HE SHOWED THAT YOU CAN NEVER DETERMINE THE CHIEF REASON FOR THE AMERICAN CIVIL WAR, NAPOLEONS DEFEAT AT WATERLOO, THE FALL OF THE ROMAN EMPIRE, OR ANY OTHER HISTORICAL EVENT. THE CHIEF REASON CANNOT BE KNOWN IN ANY PRECISE SENSE. FOR ANY EVENT THERE ARE HUNDREDS OR THOUSANDS OF CONTRIBUTING CAUSES, AND NO WAY TO ASSIGN PRIORITIES TO THESE CAUSES. HISTORIANS HAVE ATTACKED THE WRIGHT THESIS VIGOROUSLY SINCE IT TENDS TO PUT THEM OUT OF A JOB. HE WAS, HOWEVER, MATHEMATICALLY CORRECT BEYOND DOUBT.

  FINALLY WRIGHT TURNED TO THE GENERAL THEORY OF INTERACTIONS. FOR SIMPLICITY HE STUDIED TWO-COMPONENT INTERACTIONS LEADING TO A SINGLE EVENT OR OUTCOME. HE BECAME QUITE KNOWLEDGEABLE IN THIS AREA.

  SUMMARY: WRIGHT IS A TALENTED MATHEMATICIAN WHOSE PERSONAL INTERESTS FALL IN THE AREA OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS AS THEY APPLY TO HUMAN ACTIVITIES SUCH AS SPORTS, GAMBLING, AND THE INTERPRETATION OF HISTORY. HIS DEVELOPMENT AS A MATHEMATICIAN DISPOSED HIM TO BE INTERESTED IN TWO-COMPONENT INTERACTIONS LEADING TO A SINGLE EVENT OR OUTCOME.

  Graves stared at the screen. The notion of twocomponent interactions fascinated him. It seemed to have all sorts of connotations. He punched buttons and looked at the bibliography, which was not revealing. He looked at the abstracts of articles written by Wright. They were equally unrevealing. Then he saw that a final study was available: Apparently S. Vessen had applied a statistical analysis of his own to Wrights work.

  S. VESSEN: ANALYSIS OF WORD FREQUENCIES IN

  PAPERS OF JOHN WRIGHT.

  THE FOLLOWING WORDS APPEAR MORE FREQUENTLY

  THAN EXPECTED ACCORDING TO RATIOS OF TOTAL

  WORDAGE FOR MATHEMATICAL TREATISES

  PROBABILITY

  COINCIDENCE

  GAUSSIAN

  INSTABILITY

  INTERACTION

  TWO-COMPONENT

  IMPOTENCE

  Graves frowned, staring at the last word. Then he pressed the `Wipe button a final time and hurried to catch his plane.

  HOUR 10

  EN ROUTE TO

  SAN DIEGO

  7 AM PDT

  The aircraft banked steeply over the oil fields of Long Beach and headed south towards San Diego. Graves stared out the window, thinking of Wrights file. Then he thought about his own. He wondered what it looked like, the information displayed on the unblinking cathode-ray screen in sharp white easy-to-read block letters. He wondered how accurate it was, how fair, how honest, how kind.

  Graves was thirty-six years old. He had worked for the government fifteen years - nearly half his life. That fact implied a dedication which had never been there; from the start his career in government had been a kind of accident.

  In college Graves had studied subjects that interested him, whether they were practical or not. On the surface they seemed highly impractical: Russian literature and mathematics. He was drafted immediately after college and did push-ups for five weeks before somebody in the Army discovered what he knew. Then he was sent to the language school in Monterey, where he remained forty-eight hours - just long enough to be tested - before being flown to Washington.

  That was in 1957, and the Cold War was grim. Washington needed Russian translators desperately. There were fears of a land war in Europe, fears of grand conquistadorial campaigns conducted by World Communism, meaning those two friendly allies, Russia and China. At the time the fears had seemed compelling and logical.